’22-’23 Rookie Expectations

Pros: Paulo has the physical tools, 6’10” height 7’1” wingspan, that every NBA team is in the market for. He has the ability to score from all 3 levels; he is going to a team that needs offensive creativity; and he led one of the best schools in the country deep into the NCAA tournament. He is absolutely worth drafting. Wait until final rounds of the snake draft to target your rookies and don’t overspend in your auction drafts for unproven players.  

Cons: While Paulo can shoot from the perimeter, his 3 point percentage will be a part of his game that he will need to improve to become a stronger NBA player. The Orlando Magic will give Paulo the green light to create on the offensive end as the Magic doesn’t have many creators. While usage percentage will help his fantasy value, he will also likely commit above average turnovers for his position.   

Pros: Jabari Smith couldn’t have landed in a better spot than in Houston. Houston is starting a rebuild and Jabari Smith might be the most NBA-ready player in the draft. His game is polished and mature, leading to good decisions with passing and communicating with his team mates. He is one of the youngest players in the draft and potentially has the highest ceilings of any player in the draft.

Cons: Jabari could come into the NBA and win rookie of the year. However, my gut says that while he will have a good rookie campaign, the world won’t truly see his greatness until year 2 or 3. What I think will limit his overall potential during his rookie year is going to be consistent efficient scoring. He will get as many shots as he can handle in Houston, but after his first few Summer League games where he didn’t have the best scoring outings, consistency might be a concern for this young rookie.

Pros: For those who look to Summer League as a barometer for NBA success will look no further then Keegan Murray as a must draft. Murray showed he could average 20 points while also draining 4 shots from deep and being able to hit clutch baskets as he did down the stretch against the magic. He is going to Sacramento who has been looking for their franchise player for decades now and they think they found their guy with Keegan Murray. He will most likely be productive right away and should help compliment Sabonis’s strengths, particularly his passing ability.

Cons: He is playing for the Sacramento Kings. While many players have individually flourished inside this organization, there is very little evidence that this franchise makes players reach any higher potential than they could get on their own. There is also no guarantee that he gets enough usage to put up rosterable (is that a word?) numbers.

Pros: The Detroit Pistons believe they have found the backcourt compliment to Cade Cunningham. He has good playmaking ability and will get every opportunity to stretch his wings in the Motor City. He showed that he has the ability in his Summer League debut and could very easily be this year’s breakout rookie. He should be a decent source of points, assists, and rebounds, while also not tanking your percentages. 

Cons: We’re sure Detroit was being overly cautious shutting down Jaden during summer league after an ankle injury, but early injuries don’t bolster my confidence in him as a draft prospect. While he did show he can pass, 6 assists in said game, it came at the cost of 5 turnovers. A high turnover rate won’t keep him off the floor, but could be detrimental to your fantasy team.

Pros: The Pacers are in the middle of a complete teardown and rebuild around Tyrese Haliburton. Now that Malcom Brogdan will be in a Celtics uniform next year, it is all but a guarantee that Bennedict will get starting minutes as a rookie. His summer league play shows that he can be a steady pull-up shooter. He has also learned early, that with a dependable jump shot, he can make life difficult for defenses as he was able to get downhill quickly. Like many of the rookies ahead of him, he will be given the opportunity to shine on a team that believes he can be a part of their young core going forward. He is physically NBA ready with his size and strength. He has the ability to play the 2 or 3 which should help keep his minutes pretty stable for his rookie campaign.

Cons: He has good ability to get the rim but definitely needs to work on his ball handling in order to be successful at the NBA level. He is not a good playmaker or passer yet in his career. Also, even though Brogdan is gone, Bennedict will still get the ball after Haliburton and Buddy Hield. Unless the Pacers move Hield, I am not seeing the rookie getting enough of an opportunity to put up numbers that would justify a spot on your fantasy roster. Though if he is available and you want to take a chance on him, there are far worse players to roll the dice on.

Pros: Shaedon has great upside as a player. He is skilled and in the few minutes we saw him play, he dropped an effortless jumper. There is a lot of hype around Shaedon and the NBA is eagerly awaiting to see what kind of player he can become.

Cons: We didn’t get to see him play at Kentucky and then he had a minor shoulder injury during summer league play. His play has been compared to Anfernee Simons, so will he really get an opportunity in Portland?

Pros: Dyson doesn’t have to develop as a player right away in order to be valuable to the Pelicans. He is arguably the best player drafted out of the G-League in history, so the NBA is definitely rooting for this guy. The Pelicans have plenty of scorers with Ingram, Zion, and Mccollum and a playmaker like Dyson could be a dark horse assist option this coming season. He also is a good defender and should consistently be a source of steals if he is given the opportunity. 

Cons: The Pelicans are making a push for the playoffs and any playmaking will be welcome. However, for Dyson to be a fantasy option he will have to fit and be productive to team wins. The Pelicans are not going to give him free reign at the cost of not winning games. They are trying to prove to Zion and everyone else that this franchise is a winner. More often than not, rookies don’t offer net positives early on. This doesn’t pair well with a player who is not very explosive or a great shooter.

Pros: The Spurs are seemingly hitting the rebuild button. Jeremy should see time as the Spurs are looking to evaluate talent and pick who will be a part of their future. Sochan is a pretty polished player and when you watch him, you can see why Popovich selected him.

Cons: Sochan hasn’t shown that he is NBA ready yet. While he will most likely be efficient on the defensive and offensive end of the floor, this will probably lead to only ancillary stats probably not dictating a spot on your roster. He sat out of summer league with Covid while he will probably crack the rotation in San Antonio, he will require more time to develop under Pop in order to be a fantasy contributor.

Pros: Johnny Davis is an NBA ready guard and should crack the rotation in Washington as a backup. He is a natural scorer and very competitive. His ceiling might be clouded by question marks but he has a good floor.

Cons: We have a hard time determining what Washington’s strategy is. They appear to acquire talent but I can’t say I see an identity beyond “Bradley Beal’s team” Just because we can’t see it though doesn’t mean Johnny Davis can’t excel here, we just don’t think it would be the most ideal franchise to walk in to right now as a rookie looking to develop. His 3pt shot is questionable, he is a below average defender and is not a strong playmaker yet in his career.

Pros: Chet Holmgren is also going to be given the green light for the Thunder. He has been compared to Porzingas,Jokic, and Dirk, with his ability to score from all levels. He is projected to have a 69.1% True shooting percentage while also shooting 39% from deep. Outside of his ability to shoot, he can pass, rebound, and defend as well as any of the other rookies. While he shouldn’t be the anchor of your team at his position he will definitely hold value in your rotation.

Cons: We couldn’t leave him off the list even though he isn’t going to play this year. While no one should draft him, use this knowledge for next year’s draft as Chet is already the early favorite for rookie of the year. There aren’t very many knocks against Chet’s game. His turnovers may be high and his shooting percentages might be lower than predicted, but that is yet to be seen as he did well in Summer League. The only concern to his game is if he can handle the more physical NBA game.